National Grid, in its 2016 study Future Energy Scenarios, considered four alternative views of UK energy supply and demand up to 2040. While these may be useful as a framework within which to plan, they say nothing about one essential factor, security of supply. For each of the scenarios, we estimate the possibility of meeting an established risk baseline: a grid supply failure occurring in no more than four winters every hundred years (as used prior to privatization).
The security of supply under future energy scenarios
Despite having installed more than 38GW of renewable energy generating capacity in the last decade, The UK has reached a capacity crisis. There is no hard evidence that this push for renewables has been an effective way to reduce CO2 emissions, and the cost has certainly been very large. The analysis presented in these two papers makes a strong case for a radical review of energy policy from an engineering perspective, placing equal weight on cost, security and environmental impacts.
The cost of supply under future energy scenarios